Senate and House Latest, Confronting Racism in Florida: 12 Days to Go Image
Welcome to The Tip Sheet, a daily political analysis of the 2018 elections, based on interviews with Republican and Democratic officials, pollsters, strategists and voters.
Where things stand
• Red-state Senate Democrats have found a villain for their closing message: those dastardly Democrats.
Two of the most vulnerable incumbents, Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Joe Donnelly of Indiana, have moved aggressively in recent ads to distance themselves from left-wing elements in their own party.
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The level of subtlety varies. Ms. McCaskill’s team put out a radio ad assuring voters that she is not “one of those crazy Democrats,” without naming who, exactly, qualifies for the Crazy Caucus. She also released an ad from veterans defending her tenure that included a striking caveat: “You don’t have to like her,” one says.
LiesCreditCreditVideo by Team Claire
Mr. Donnelly, leaving nothing to chance, leaned on a visual aid. Brandishing an ax in his ad, he ticks off his less-than-progressive record — a split with many in his party on the Bush tax cuts, a split with the “liberal left” over defense spending — while literally splitting hunks of wood in half. It’s a metaphor, ya see. “I split with my own party,” he says, thwacking away, “to support funding for Trump’s border wall.”
Look for more of this before Election Day (well, maybe not exactly this) from endangered Democrats hoping to stick around.
• Want to know how Republicans are feeling about the Senate campaign? Watch Air Force One.
President Trump is almost certainly going to make another stop in Missouri, with Ms. McCaskill struggling to hang on, and in Tennessee, where Republicans are defending an open seat.
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But senior party officials indicate he may have time for a second trip to one of those states. And that will be the tell: Where might Mr. Trump head back to for a final pre-election rally?
• According to a New York Times/Siena College poll that ended Wednesday, the battleground congressional race in Florida between Representative Carlos Curbelo, a Republican, and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a Democrat, is effectively tied. Mr. Curbelo had a slight edge in the poll in mid-September.
• Mi Familia Vota, a Latino civic organization, is releasing an arresting television ad featuring a dramatization of President Trump slapping Latinos across the face. The ad is titled “Trumpadas,” a play on the Spanish word “trompada,” which is a punch.
The spot, which will be running in seven states with large Latino populations, marks a rare media buy for a Latino group during the campaign season. Typically, such organizations leave messaging to campaigns and candidates. But concerns about candidates ignoring the Latino vote prompted the group to raise money for a spot. Democrats fear that low Latino turnout could undercut their chances in key races.
Where things stand
• Red-state Senate Democrats have found a villain for their closing message: those dastardly Democrats.
Two of the most vulnerable incumbents, Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Joe Donnelly of Indiana, have moved aggressively in recent ads to distance themselves from left-wing elements in their own party.
ADVERTISEMENT
The level of subtlety varies. Ms. McCaskill’s team put out a radio ad assuring voters that she is not “one of those crazy Democrats,” without naming who, exactly, qualifies for the Crazy Caucus. She also released an ad from veterans defending her tenure that included a striking caveat: “You don’t have to like her,” one says.
LiesCreditCreditVideo by Team Claire
Mr. Donnelly, leaving nothing to chance, leaned on a visual aid. Brandishing an ax in his ad, he ticks off his less-than-progressive record — a split with many in his party on the Bush tax cuts, a split with the “liberal left” over defense spending — while literally splitting hunks of wood in half. It’s a metaphor, ya see. “I split with my own party,” he says, thwacking away, “to support funding for Trump’s border wall.”
Look for more of this before Election Day (well, maybe not exactly this) from endangered Democrats hoping to stick around.
• Want to know how Republicans are feeling about the Senate campaign? Watch Air Force One.
ADVERTISEMENT
But senior party officials indicate he may have time for a second trip to one of those states. And that will be the tell: Where might Mr. Trump head back to for a final pre-election rally?
• According to a New York Times/Siena College poll that ended Wednesday, the battleground congressional race in Florida between Representative Carlos Curbelo, a Republican, and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a Democrat, is effectively tied. Mr. Curbelo had a slight edge in the poll in mid-September.
• Mi Familia Vota, a Latino civic organization, is releasing an arresting television ad featuring a dramatization of President Trump slapping Latinos across the face. The ad is titled “Trumpadas,” a play on the Spanish word “trompada,” which is a punch.
The spot, which will be running in seven states with large Latino populations, marks a rare media buy for a Latino group during the campaign season. Typically, such organizations leave messaging to campaigns and candidates. But concerns about candidates ignoring the Latino vote prompted the group to raise money for a spot. Democrats fear that low Latino turnout could undercut their chances in key races.
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